Derby
Full Time
Birmingham
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Away Win
3-Way Result
75%
confidence
The comparison metrics favor an away outcome with Birmingham showing a 60% form and an 86% Poisson distribution compared to Derby’s 40% and 14%, while season data indicates Derby concedes an average of 2.0 goals versus Birmingham’s 1.0. Although H2H results are mixed with Derby winning 50% of the recent fixtures, the weight of metrics and season stats align towards an Away Win. We assign a 75% probability based on this convergence. Given no bookmaker odds, the fallback odds are set at 100/75 ≈ 1.33.
Best Value
Away/Draw
Double Chance
Double Chance: Away or Draw provides a safety net by combining Birmingham’s solid league indicators (60% form and an 86% Poisson) with the cushioning effect of a draw. Season stats—such as Birmingham’s average goals conceded of 1.0 and Derby’s defensive fragility—support this option. H2H evidence of away wins and draws reinforces the choice, converging on an 80% probability. With a value edge exceeding 30%, the fallback odds are 100/80 ≈ 1.25.
80%
prob.
1.25
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Away Win
Birmingham Poisson 86% and form 60%
75%
odds 1.33
Double Chance
Away/Draw
Birmingham clean sheet 1 and Derby failed-to-score 2
80%
odds 1.25
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Swansea | 8 | 5 | 17 |
| 2 |  West Ham | 8 | 4 | 15 |
| 3 |  Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 15 |
| 4 |  Wolves | 7 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 |  West Brom | 8 | 4 | 14 |
| 6 |  QPR | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 |  Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 |  Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 |  Charlton | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham ● | 8 | 2 | 11 |
| 11 |  Millwall | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 |  Lincoln | 8 | 3 | 11 |
| 13 |  Southampton | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 |  Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 10 |
| 15 |  Bolton | 8 | 3 | 10 |
| 16 |  Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 17 |  Norwich | 8 | 3 | 9 |
| 18 |  Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 19 |  Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 8 |
| 20 |  Watford | 8 | 2 | 8 |
| 21 |  Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby ● | 8 | 1 | 5 |
| 23 |  Preston | 8 | 1 | 4 |
| 24 |  Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 |
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