The data strongly supports a home win with an H2H comparison at 85% and a home goals advantage of 67%. Historical fixtures show Fakel winning 3 out of 6 matches, which aligns with the overall metrics. Despite limited season data, the convergence of the H2H and goals percentages indicates an 80% probability for a home victory. This pick is conservative given the low season form and null recent match stats. The evidence from the H2H results is compelling even though few matches ended in high scoring draws. Hence, the home win offers a clear outcome in this contest.