The 3-Way Result pick of a Home Win is supported by a 100% home form and a 100% Poisson advantage, contrasting sharply with the away 0% in both metrics. Historical H2H results are mixed but the comparison metrics drive our confidence. Season stats show home scoring average of 0.7 versus away 0.5, further supporting a narrow home victory despite overall low scoring figures. This pick carries moderate risk given some H2H inconsistencies but overall evidence leans home. Therefore, with a conservative probability of 80%, this option is our highest confidence pick.