The most confident pick is the Double Chance (Home or Draw) given ST Johnstone’s strong comparison metrics with a 64% home form and 72% home Poisson expectation, despite a 40% h2h for home. Season stats further back this with a 47% last-5 form compared to Dundee Utd’s 27%. This option covers the key risk of conflicting head-to-head evidence. The convergence of multiple metrics elevates its reliability despite minor conflicts. It is a safe, conservative pick for this matchup.