Our analysis indicates a strong River Plate advantage with 62% in head-to-head metrics and 64% in goals comparison, despite a lower home form at 41% compared to Rosario Central's 59%. The Poisson distribution also supports River Plate with a 56% chance versus 44% for opponents. Historical H2H results reveal several wins for River Plate, including a decisive 4-0, and season stats show River Plate's solid scoring (1.5 average) combined with 8 clean sheets. This convergent evidence leads us to pick a River Plate win. However, caution is advised given the mixed recent form with only 60% in their last-5 performance. We assign an 80% probability to this outcome.