Football
Championship Championship
· Semi-finals
Southampton

Southampton

2–1

Full Time

Middlesbrough

Middlesbrough

🏟 St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton
🟡 A. Madley
📋 Semi-finals
📅 2025

🤖 AI Predictions

Best Bet

Middlesbrough Win

3-Way Result

80%

confidence

Odds: 2.88 bookmaker Medium Risk

Assessing multiple metrics, the away team shows strong favor with a 75% h2h metric and a 73% goals metric supporting a Middlesbrough win. Season data reveals their defensive solidity (14 clean sheets vs Southampton’s 12) and robust attacking form (100% att in last 5) compared to Southampton’s 90% att. H2H results further solidify this with several away wins in recent encounters. Although both teams have identical recent form (60%), the combination of Poisson distribution (43% away) and defensive records drives our confidence. These convergent stats support an estimated 80% probability for a Middlesbrough win. The risk remains medium due to some mixed indicators like similar overall form percentages.

Best Value

Middlesbrough Win

3-Way Result

The best value option is also the Middlesbrough win in the 3-Way Result market, where the probability at 80% greatly exceeds the implied probability of roughly 34.7% from bookmaker odds of 2.88. Comparison metrics heavily favor the away side with 75% in h2h and 73% in goals metrics, reinforcing our outlook. Season statistics further support this with Middlesbrough’s stronger away attacking record and fewer goals conceded overall. The convergence of evidence results in a robust value edge, making this option attractive despite inherent risks. Given the high discrepancy between our predicted probability and the bookmaker’s implied probability, the value rating is a solid 5.

80%

prob.

2.88

odds

All Markets

3-Way Result

Middlesbrough Win

Away h2h metric at 75%

80%

odds 2.88

Double Chance

Draw/Away

Away goals metric at 73%

70%

odds 1.53

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Match Summary

Recent Form (last 5)

Southampton
Southampton
No data
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
WWDLD

Current Standings

4
Southampton
Southampton
46 P 22 W 80 Pts
5
Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
46 P 22 W 80 Pts
🏀 🎾 🏈

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