Southampton
Full Time
Middlesbrough
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Middlesbrough Win
3-Way Result
80%
confidence
Assessing multiple metrics, the away team shows strong favor with a 75% h2h metric and a 73% goals metric supporting a Middlesbrough win. Season data reveals their defensive solidity (14 clean sheets vs Southampton’s 12) and robust attacking form (100% att in last 5) compared to Southampton’s 90% att. H2H results further solidify this with several away wins in recent encounters. Although both teams have identical recent form (60%), the combination of Poisson distribution (43% away) and defensive records drives our confidence. These convergent stats support an estimated 80% probability for a Middlesbrough win. The risk remains medium due to some mixed indicators like similar overall form percentages.
Best Value
Middlesbrough Win
3-Way Result
The best value option is also the Middlesbrough win in the 3-Way Result market, where the probability at 80% greatly exceeds the implied probability of roughly 34.7% from bookmaker odds of 2.88. Comparison metrics heavily favor the away side with 75% in h2h and 73% in goals metrics, reinforcing our outlook. Season statistics further support this with Middlesbrough’s stronger away attacking record and fewer goals conceded overall. The convergence of evidence results in a robust value edge, making this option attractive despite inherent risks. Given the high discrepancy between our predicted probability and the bookmaker’s implied probability, the value rating is a solid 5.
80%
prob.
2.88
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Middlesbrough Win
Away h2h metric at 75%
80%
odds 2.88
Double Chance
Draw/Away
Away goals metric at 73%
70%
odds 1.53
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
Current Standings
League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Coventry | 46 | 28 | 95 |
| 2 |  Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 84 |
| 3 |  Millwall | 46 | 24 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton ● | 46 | 22 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough ● | 46 | 22 | 80 |
| 6 |  Hull City | 46 | 21 | 73 |
| 7 |  Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 71 |
| 8 |  Derby | 46 | 20 | 69 |
| 9 |  Norwich | 46 | 19 | 65 |
| 10 |  Birmingham | 46 | 17 | 64 |
| 11 |  Swansea | 46 | 18 | 64 |
| 12 |  Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 62 |
| 13 |  Sheffield Utd | 46 | 18 | 60 |
| 14 |  Preston | 46 | 15 | 60 |
| 15 |  QPR | 46 | 16 | 58 |
| 16 |  Watford | 46 | 14 | 57 |
| 17 |  Stoke City | 46 | 15 | 55 |
| 18 |  Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 55 |
| 19 |  Charlton | 46 | 13 | 53 |
| 20 |  Blackburn | 46 | 13 | 52 |
| 21 |  West Brom | 46 | 13 | 51 |
| 22 |  Oxford United | 46 | 11 | 47 |
| 23 |  Leicester | 46 | 12 | 46 |
| 24 |  Sheffield Wednesday | 46 | 2 | 0 |
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