Aberdeen show strong comparison metrics with 77% form and 78% attack versus ST Mirren’s 23% and 22%, and their Poisson value stands at 65% compared to 35%. Season stats also favor Aberdeen with an average of 1.6 goals at home against ST Mirren’s 0.8 away. Although the H2H metric is conflicted (29% for home vs 71% for away), the overall weight (60% from comparison and season) supports an Aberdeen win. This pick acknowledges the risk from historical head-to-head results but relies on current performance. The evidence from season clean sheets (10 for Aberdeen vs 8 for ST Mirren) further bolsters this view. Consequently, we assign an 80% probability with a Medium-High risk level.