Our best bet is to play Double Chance: Draw or Shakhtar Donetsk. The provider advice notes 'Double chance : draw or Shakhtar Donetsk' and the percentages show a 45% chance for a draw and a 45% chance for an away win, effectively yielding a high combined likelihood. Additionally, the head-to-head metric strongly favors Shakhtar at 80%, reinforcing that they are unlikely to lose. Season data shows AZ Alkmaar have 6 home clean sheets versus Shakhtar’s 1 away clean sheet, underscoring the defensive edge for Shakhtar. The convergence of provider odds with comparison metrics provides a solid basis despite minor conflicts from the Poisson (75% home) figure. Hence, we maintain a conservative estimated probability of 80% for this market.