The evidence strongly favors a non-loss outcome for HNK Rijeka as provider percentages show 45% for a win and 45% for a draw, summing to a 90% chance. The comparison metrics support this with HNK Rijeka’s 80% defensive rating and a Poisson of 70% for home. Season data underline their solid defense with 93% in the last 5 matches. This is reinforced by both teams’ under 3.5 goals stats (8 under outcomes for HNK Rijeka) indicating a low scoring game. The risk is moderate due to the balanced attack percentages. Overall, converging evidence makes the double chance extremely compelling.