Barry Town
Full Time
Caernarfon Town
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Home Win
3-Way Result
75%
confidence
The 3-Way Result prediction leans on strong home metrics, with Barry Town’s form at 69% and defensive rating at 69% compared to Caernarfon Town’s 31%, while the Poisson distribution gives a 62% home edge. Despite H2H showing a 71% win rate for the away side, the home team’s better season clean sheet record (12 vs 5) supports a home win. This pick is backed by multiple metrics aligning despite some H2H conflicts. The overall conservative probability is set at 75%, reflecting moderate risk due to conflicting historical outcomes.
Best Value
Under 2.5
Goals Over/Under
The Goals Over/Under market offers strong value with both teams showing high under performance. Barry Town’s league data shows an under 2.5 count of 23 and Caernarfon Town’s under count is 22, indicating a strong tendency towards lower totals. Multiple comparison metrics and season under/over thresholds converge on this outcome, with an aggregated probability of 80%. Despite any scoring potential from Caernarfon, the evidence points to a low-scoring affair with significant value.
80%
prob.
1.25
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Home Win
Barry Town form at 69% vs Caernarfon Town at 31%
75%
odds 1.33
Double Chance
Home or Draw
Home defense at 69% compared to away at 31%
80%
odds 1.25
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  The New Saints | 32 | 26 | 80 |
| 2 |  GAP Connah S Quay FC | 32 | 16 | 58 |
| 3 | Barry Town ● | 32 | 12 | 46 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town ● | 32 | 12 | 45 |
| 5 |  Colwyn Bay | 32 | 12 | 45 |
| 6 |  Penybont | 32 | 11 | 41 |
| 1 |  Haverfordwest County AFC | 32 | 14 | 48 |
| 2 |  Briton Ferry | 32 | 12 | 45 |
| 3 |  Cardiff MET | 32 | 8 | 38 |
| 4 |  Flint Town United | 32 | 8 | 35 |
| 5 |  Bala Town | 32 | 8 | 32 |
| 6 |  llanelli AFC | 32 | 3 | 13 |
| 1 | The New Saints | 22 | 17 | 53 |
| 2 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 22 | 14 | 47 |
| 3 | Penybont | 22 | 11 | 38 |
| 4 | Caernarfon Town ● | 22 | 9 | 34 |
| 5 | Barry Town ● | 22 | 7 | 30 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 22 | 8 | 30 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 22 | 6 | 28 |
| 8 | Briton Ferry | 22 | 6 | 25 |
| 9 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 22 | 6 | 24 |
| 10 | Bala Town | 22 | 6 | 23 |
| 11 | Flint Town United | 22 | 5 | 21 |
| 12 | llanelli AFC | 22 | 2 | 8 |
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