The data strongly favors Lillestrom at home with clear evidence from season stats and H2H records. Lillestrom have scored 13 goals at home with an average of 2.2, and H2H shows 5 wins in 9 matches for the home side. Additionally, the comparison metrics, with a home form of 46% versus away 54%, combined with their strong home scoring, strengthens this pick. However, note that Poisson distribution suggests a 75% chance for the home team which partly conflicts with other metrics. With multiple independent metrics aligning, we assign a conservative 80% probability for a Home Win. Risk level is Medium due to slight conflicts in attacking percentages.