The home team is favored with an 83% form and a 76% Poisson advantage while the away team trails with only 17% form and 24% Poisson support. Season stats show Bahia scoring 25 goals in total at an average of 1.5 per game, reinforcing their superiority. Despite mixed head-to-head results (with a roughly 50/50 split), overall team performance and last‐5 figures (33% for Bahia vs 7% for Chapecoense) strongly back a Home Win. This prediction is supported by a 62% attacking advantage at home. Caution remains due to some H2H conflicts but the dominant metrics tip the scales. We assign a probability of 85% for a Home Win.