Columbus Crew
Not Started
New York City FC
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Under 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under
80%
confidence
Our analysis favors an underwhelming scoring game. Season under/over stats show Columbus Crew under 2.5 occurred 14 times (over only 1) and NYCFC under 2.5 occurred 11 times (over 4), aligning with low scoring patterns. The Poisson distribution of 59% for home and 41% for away further supports a conservative low scoring outcome. H2H matches have featured multiple low scoring draws, adding to the evidence. Despite conflicting form percentages (home 36% vs away 64%), the convergence of season and H2H stats gives confidence. We assign an 80% probability to Under 2.5 Goals with cautious risk.
Best Value
Under 2.5 Goals
Goals Over/Under
Our best optimal value is found in the Under 2.5 Goals market. Both teams’ season under/over records (Columbus Crew: 14 under vs 1 over, NYCFC: 11 under vs 4 over) signal a strong low-scoring tendency. Given our 80% estimated probability, the fair odds would be 1.25; however, a bookmaker line of 1.80 creates a substantial value edge. The comparison metrics and H2H evidence further reinforce this low scoring outcome. Although there are some risks due to form discrepancies (36% vs 64%), the odds mispricing presents a compelling value. This convergence of evidence gives us high confidence with a significant edge.
80%
prob.
0
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Draw
H2H draws occurred in at least 4 out of 8 matches
65%
odds 1.54
Double Chance
Away or Draw
Away form stands at 64% compared to home 36%
70%
odds 1.43
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
Current Standings
League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  San Diego | 34 | 19 | 63 |
| 2 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 18 | 63 |
| 3 |  Los Angeles FC | 34 | 17 | 60 |
| 4 |  Minnesota United FC | 34 | 16 | 58 |
| 5 |  Seattle Sounders | 34 | 15 | 55 |
| 6 |  Austin | 34 | 13 | 47 |
| 7 |  FC Dallas | 34 | 11 | 44 |
| 8 |  Portland Timbers | 34 | 11 | 44 |
| 9 |  Real Salt Lake | 34 | 12 | 41 |
| 10 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 34 | 11 | 41 |
| 11 |  Colorado Rapids | 34 | 11 | 41 |
| 12 |  Houston Dynamo | 34 | 9 | 37 |
| 13 |  St. Louis City | 34 | 8 | 32 |
| 14 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 34 | 7 | 30 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 34 | 7 | 28 |
| 1 |  Philadelphia Union | 34 | 20 | 66 |
| 2 |  FC Cincinnati | 34 | 20 | 65 |
| 3 |  Inter Miami | 34 | 19 | 65 |
| 4 |  Charlotte | 34 | 19 | 59 |
| 5 | New York City FC ● | 34 | 17 | 56 |
| 6 |  Nashville SC | 34 | 16 | 54 |
| 7 | Columbus Crew ● | 34 | 14 | 54 |
| 8 |  Chicago Fire | 34 | 15 | 53 |
| 9 |  Orlando City SC | 34 | 14 | 53 |
| 10 |  New York Red Bulls | 34 | 12 | 43 |
| 11 |  New England Revolution | 34 | 9 | 36 |
| 12 |  Toronto FC | 34 | 6 | 32 |
| 13 |  CF Montreal | 34 | 6 | 28 |
| 14 |  Atlanta United FC | 34 | 5 | 28 |
| 15 |  DC United | 34 | 5 | 26 |
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