Based on the data, CF Montreal’s strong home metrics (83% form and 69% Poisson) coupled with their last-5 home average of 1.8 goals favor a home win. Although historical head-to-head (15% for home) and away goals (75% favoring Toronto) offer a mixed picture, recent season stats show Montreal winning 3 out of 6 at home compared to Toronto’s 1 win in away fixtures. This convergence of home form (83% vs 17% for away) and season performance supports the home win pick. The risk remains moderate given the conflicting h2h data. The probability is set at 75% after weighing 35% comparison, 30% head-to-head, and 25% seasonal evidence.