The Under 2.5 goals market is supported by strong season trends, with Al-Fateh recording Under 2.5 in 30 out of 32 home fixtures and Al Najma in 31 out of 32 away matches. Additionally, the defensive statistics (home against average of 1.7 and away of 2.3) reinforce a low-scoring encounter. Poisson distribution for the home side stands at 74%, further consolidating this low goal expectation. Caution is warranted given the mixed 50% form and a recent 1-1 H2H result, but overall evidence converges on a tight scoring match. The high 90% probability reflects a strong alignment of season and comparison metrics. This option has minimal risk based on historical under outcomes.