Nacional
Full Time
Guimaraes
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Guimaraes Win
3-Way Result
75%
confidence
The evidence strongly points to a Guimaraes win with a 71% H2H advantage and a 60% goals metric favoring the away side, while their attacking metric of 56% outclasses Nacional’s 44%. Season stats further support this with Guimaraes averaging 1.0 goal compared to Nacional’s 0.8. Although the Poisson distribution gives only 37% for away, the convergence of H2H and season data underpins our call. We assign a 75% probability acknowledging moderate risk from conflicting Poisson evidence.
Best Value
Guimaraes Win
3-Way Result
Our value pick is also a Guimaraes win, but here we weight the long‐odds benefit by estimating an 80% probability based on a 71% H2H advantage and a 60% goals metric. Against bookmaker odds of 3.20 (implied probability of 31.25%), this produces a substantial edge of nearly 49%. Season figures like a 56% away attack versus 44% at home reinforce this confidence. Despite some variance from the 37% Poisson for away, the multiple independent indicators converge on this outcome.
80%
prob.
3.2
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Guimaraes Win
H2H away advantage at 71%
75%
odds 3.2
Double Chance
Nacional or Guimaraes
League away form at 54%
90%
odds 1.3
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
Current Standings
League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 88 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 82 |
| 3 |  Benfica | 34 | 23 | 80 |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 34 | 16 | 59 |
| 5 |  Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 56 |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 34 | 13 | 50 |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 43 |
| 8 |  Arouca | 34 | 12 | 42 |
| 9 | Guimaraes ● | 34 | 12 | 42 |
| 10 |  Estoril | 34 | 10 | 39 |
| 11 |  Alverca | 34 | 10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 36 |
| 13 |  Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional ● | 34 | 9 | 34 |
| 15 |  Estrela | 34 | 6 | 30 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 30 |
| 17 |  Tondela | 34 | 6 | 28 |
| 18 |  AVS | 34 | 3 | 21 |
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