Famalicao
Full Time
Alverca
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
Famalicao Win
3-Way Result
80%
confidence
Famalicao shows a slight edge with a Poisson home probability of 74% and an average of 1.6 goals at home, which supports a Famalicao win despite split H2H results (1-0 loss and 2-1 win). The season data, including 8 home wins and strong offensive metrics, reinforces this pick. Although the overall comparison metrics are even (50% form, 50% attack), these key stats tip the balance. We conservatively rate this outcome at an 80% probability, while noting some inherent risk from mixed H2H evidence.
Best Value
Famalicao Win
3-Way Result
Our best value option is also a Famalicao win in the 3-Way Result market. With bookmaker odds at 1.57 and our estimated probability of 80%, the implied probability is around 63.7%, yielding a value edge of approximately 16%, which is the highest among the available options. This convergence of a 74% home advantage from the Poisson metric and a season record with 8 home wins supports the selection. Though the edge isn’t above 30%, it remains the best available value with a strong 80% probability.
80%
prob.
1.57
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
Famalicao Win
74% Poisson home advantage & 1.6 average home goals
80%
odds 1.57
Double Chance
Famalicao or Draw
9 home clean sheets & 50% form metric
85%
odds 1.17
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
Current Standings
League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 88 |
| 2 |  Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 82 |
| 3 |  Benfica | 34 | 23 | 80 |
| 4 |  SC Braga | 34 | 16 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao ● | 34 | 15 | 56 |
| 6 |  GIL Vicente | 34 | 13 | 50 |
| 7 |  Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 43 |
| 8 |  Arouca | 34 | 12 | 42 |
| 9 |  Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 42 |
| 10 |  Estoril | 34 | 10 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca ● | 34 | 10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 36 |
| 13 |  Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 36 |
| 14 |  Nacional | 34 | 9 | 34 |
| 15 |  Estrela | 34 | 6 | 30 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 30 |
| 17 |  Tondela | 34 | 6 | 28 |
| 18 |  AVS | 34 | 3 | 21 |
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