Analyzing season data, both teams show low scoring trends with Arouca averaging 1.5 goals at home and Tondela 0.8 away. The under/over thresholds indicate Arouca recorded only 8 overs versus 25 unders at 2.5 goals, supporting an under 2.5 match total. This aligns with the Poisson distribution favoring home at 61% and Tondela’s under performance with 32 under occurrences. Although h2h and goals metrics introduce slight uncertainty, the combined weight of season under trends and attacking averages gives a strong signal. It is a safe pick with overall low risk and stable scoring patterns. The prediction is conservative with an 80% probability.