Our analysis supports a strong home advantage with evidence from H2H (62% in favor) and season clean sheet records giving Leganes a steady performance. The Double Chance market (Leganes or Draw) captures both the potential win and safety of a draw, supported by Leganes' comparison metrics (63% in goals) and defensive statistics. This option mitigates risk since it covers both outcomes while still relying on multiple independent metrics. The bookmaker odds of 1.22 further add to its appeal, and the convergence of season stats and comparison metrics underpins our confidence. While leganes last-5 form is low at 20%, the overall evidence including Poisson (64% for home) and H2H (62%) tip in their favor. We maintain an ultra‐conservative probability of 88% to reflect minor risks. Overall, this prediction balances risk and reward consistently.