The evidence strongly favors an away victory as the comparison metrics show Oviedo with 22% form and 22% att while Alaves lead with 78% in both, and last-5 form further supports Alaves at 47% versus Oviedo’s 13%. Season stats back this with Alaves averaging 1.4 goals per match compared to Oviedo’s 0.4. Additionally, H2H results include an Alaves win (2-1) among mixed results, tilting the balance. This convergence of 78% att, overall 61% advantage, and scoring metrics suggests Alaves win is highly likely. Although there is some variance in H2H scores, the collective data is compelling. We assign a probability of 85% while noting some inherent match uncertainties.