FSV Mainz 05
Full Time
Union Berlin
🤖 AI Predictions
Best Bet
FSV Mainz 05 or Draw
Double Chance
75%
confidence
The data shows a marked edge for FSV Mainz 05 when considering league home performance, with a 78% home form and a last‐5 attacking rate of 62%, which supports a safer outcome. The last-5 stats also indicate Union Berlin’s form is only 13%, making a draw a plausible fallback result. Additionally, season data suggests Mainz’s home win/draw frequency is favorable despite conflicting H2H trends (25% for home win vs 75% for away win). This double chance pick cushions against the historical mismatch while leveraging recent strong home indicators. It is a conservative option reflecting approximately 75% probability. The risk level is Low given the safety net provided by including a draw. Overall, multiple independent metrics converge on this safer bet.
Best Value
FSV Mainz 05 Win
3-Way Result
The value bet is chosen on the 3-Way Result for a FSV Mainz 05 win, where the bookmaker odds of 1.67 imply a probability of about 60% while our aggregated metrics justify a much higher likelihood. Notably, the home team’s form stands at 78% and the Poisson distribution favors a 61% chance for home success. Despite historical H2H favoring Union Berlin at 75%, recent season stats, including a 47% last-5 form for Mainz compared to 13% for Union Berlin, strongly support a home win. Assigning a 90% probability here creates a value edge of over 30%, with a value rating of 5. The evidence from both league and recent performance data justifies this contrarian view from the bookmaker’s pricing. It is a high confidence, high value selection despite some conflicting historical data.
90%
prob.
1.67
odds
All Markets
3-Way Result
FSV Mainz 05 Win
Home form at 78% vs away form 22%
65%
odds 1.67
Double Chance
FSV Mainz 05 or Draw
Mainz last-5 form at 47% vs Union Berlin at 13%
75%
odds 1.18
Match Summary
Recent Form (last 5)
Current Standings
Head to Head
FSV Mainz 05 Union Berlin Union Berlin FSV Mainz 05 Union Berlin FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 Union Berlin FSV Mainz 05 Union Berlin +5 more H2H results in the app
Download Free →League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | 28 | 89 |
| 2 |  Borussia Dortmund | 34 | 22 | 73 |
| 3 |  RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 65 |
| 4 |  VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 18 | 62 |
| 5 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 34 | 18 | 61 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 34 | 17 | 59 |
| 7 |  SC Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 47 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 34 | 11 | 44 |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 34 | 12 | 43 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 ● | 34 | 10 | 40 |
| 11 | Union Berlin ● | 34 | 10 | 39 |
| 12 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 38 |
| 13 |  Hamburger SV | 34 | 9 | 38 |
| 14 |  1. FC Köln | 34 | 7 | 32 |
| 15 |  Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 32 |
| 16 |  VfL Wolfsburg | 34 | 7 | 29 |
| 17 |  1. FC Heidenheim | 34 | 6 | 26 |
| 18 |  FC St. Pauli | 34 | 6 | 26 |
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