All evidence strongly favors a Borussia Dortmund win given their home advantage. The comparison metrics show 55% form for Dortmund versus 45% for Frankfurt and a Poisson probability of 72% for the home side compared to 28% for the away team. H2H data supports this with a 71% home versus 29% away split, and season stats indicate Dortmund scoring an average of 2.3 goals at home. Although there is some draw potential in past results, the convergence of 3 key independent metrics justifies high confidence. The probability is set at 85% with acceptable risk given the solid statistical backing. This makes the Dortmund win a compelling best bet.