Considering the Poisson metrics favoring a 71% chance for Gornik Zabrze and a home advantage reflected in a 63% defensive rating compared to Radomiak's 38%, the evidence supports a home win. The H2H record, with competitive results (3 wins for Gornik and 4 wins for Radomiak out of recent matches), adds balance but the home team’s consistency at home in season stats strengthens the call. Gornik’s season attack and clean sheet numbers (3 home clean sheets) further support this selection. This choice is conservative yet aligned with the 71% Poisson advantage. The probability is set at 80% with no significant conflicting signals. Given the solid home form and favorable odds, this is our highest confidence pick.